Three special election races on Tuesday could provide an early indicator of President Donald Trump’s popularity just weeks into his second term, as well as insight into how Democratic messaging about his administration’s cuts to the federal government is playing with Americans in those states.

Tuesday’s election to fill a Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin has emerged as the country’s first major political battle since President Donald Trump returned to the White House. It offers both an early test of the president’s popularity in a state he narrowly flipped last year and a gauge of the political machine that Trump ally Elon Musk has deployed to drive up turnout in this swing state.